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Football predictions and probabilities · iOS and Android

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We look at every match from four angles. The moment the model sees more chance than the market, the pick lands on your phone.

Get the app How it works

Angles

Four ways into every match

Stats

Both teams' last 10 league games this season: goals, corners, cards. Expectations are pulled toward the league average.

OVER 2.5CARDSCORNERS
75 min before kick-off

Odds pattern

Searches bookmakers' opening odds for patterns that held before. Flags a match when one bookmaker's three prices sit in the same ranges.

HOME WIN
decided 5 min before kick-off

Half-time

At the break it reads the second half from the first-half score and closing odds: is one more goal likely?

2H GOAL
half-time

In-play

During the match it weighs xG and shot flow against the market price. If the model is not above the market, it stays out.

LIVE UNDER 3.5
18' – 87'

Cards

Odds, card by card.

Every pick reaches your phone as one card: the match, the odds, the probability. When the match ends, the result is stamped on that same card.

↓ scroll to open the deck
  1. 1
    Pre-matchFive minutes before kick-off, matches starting together on one list.
  2. 2
    LiveMinute, score, odds and probability on one card.
  3. 3
    StampAt full time the card itself turns WON or LOST.
  4. 4
    In the appCards come to your phone: alerts, history and the nightly recap.

Markets

What you see in the app

HOME WIN

Home team wins.

Odds pattern · 5 min before kick-off
OVER 2.5

At least 3 goals in the match.

Stats · pre-match or live in the first half
LIVE UNDER 3.5

The match ends with 3 goals or fewer.

In-play · 18' – 87'
2H GOAL

At least one goal in the second half.

Half-time · after the break
CARDS

Yellow cards: Over 3.5, Over 2.5 or Under 4.5.

Stats · 5 min before kick-off
CORNERS

Total corners, Under or Over against the league norm.

Stats · 5 min before kick-off

Live

The price moves. The moment the model sees value, the card drops.

Scroll and the match plays. See how Probs watches a pick and when it sends it to your phone.

↓ scroll · 0' → 90'
21:04
probs.now
LIVE · OVER 2.5Ev Sahibi – Deplasman
LiveSample League
Home FCAway United
0–0
0'
Over 2.5 odds1.24
Model%80
No value · watching
The card appears here once there is value.

sample scenario · not a real match

Value check

A rising price alone sends nothing

Sometimes the price rises because the match is turning against the pick. So every time the price moves, the model recalculates: if probability × odds is above 1, the card goes out; if not, it does not.

Card goes out

The price moved above the model

In the sample, at 9' the odds are 1.31 and the model says 75%: the product is 0.99, no card. At 10' the odds jump to 1.36 while the model holds at 76%: 1.03, the card drops.

0,76 × 1,36
No card

Odds up, value gone

The odds reached 1.40 but the model fell to 68%. The product is 0.95: however tempting the price, nothing is sent.

0,68 × 1,40

Reading the probability

73%

73% means that if this card came 100 times, about 73 would win. The other 27 happen too; judge the run, not one card.

The white mark on the bar is the probability implied by the odds. When the bar passes it, the model sees more chance than the market.

The percentage blends the model's view with the market price. When the model drifts far from the market, the truth usually lands in between.

Anatomy of a card

Seven things on every card

123 4567
  1. StatusPRE-MATCH with the kick-off time, or LIVE with the minute.
  2. MatchLeague and teams; the score on a live card.
  3. PickThe bet, with a plain-language line under it.
  4. OddsThe price when the card goes out: the median across bookmakers.
  5. ProbabilityHow likely the pick is to win, with a bar.
  6. White markThe probability implied by the odds. If the bar passes it, there is value.
  7. AngleWhich model made the pick.

A match day in the app

The card arrives, the result is stamped on it

  1. T − 5 min

    Kick-off list

    Picks for matches starting at the same time share one list, with a notification.

  2. Live

    Live card

    Minute, score, odds and probability. On your phone the moment the card drops.

  3. Whistle

    Stamp

    The card itself turns WON, LOST or VOID, with the score below.

  4. 23:58

    Daily recap

    Every pick of the day on one list, wins and losses together.

Coverage

Probs runs all day

02 – 07AmericasNight games in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina.
07 – 13AsiaJapan, Korea, Australia.
13 – 23EuropeAfternoon and evening, the busiest hours.
23:58RecapThe day in one card.

Times in Istanbul time (GMT+3). We look at hundreds of matches a day and leave out matches with unreliable data (friendlies, youth and reserve teams).

Track record

No card gets deleted.

A losing card stays in place, stamped LOST. At 23:58 every card of the day arrives in one recap, wins and losses together.

App

Cards come to your phone

sample screen

  • Pick your leagues and markets
  • Turkish, English and more languages
  • Choose your notification hours
  • Past cards and daily recaps
App Store · soonGoogle Play · soon

FAQ

Questions

Is Probs a betting site?

No. We take no bets and broker none. We publish picks and probabilities; how you use them is your call.

Why the name Probs?

From "probably". We promise no certainty; every card shows its probability.

When do cards arrive?

Pre-match cards come 5 minutes before kick-off, with matches starting together on one list. Live cards come during the match, the moment we see value.

Why are there few picks on some days?

We do not send a card for a match where we see no value. Few cards means we are selective.

What does the percentage mean?

73% means about 73 of 100 such cards win. One card can lose; the run is what counts.

Why no odds on cards and corners?

We cannot collect reliable prices for these markets. Those cards show the expected count and the probability instead.

What does VOID mean?

If the match is postponed or cancelled, or card and corner stats are not recorded, the pick is void and the card is stamped VOID.

Is the match in the Live section real?

No, it is a sample built to show the rule. Every card and screen on this page is a sample.

Where do I see results?

Each card is stamped in place when it settles. At 23:58 every pick of the day arrives in one recap.

When is the app coming?

iOS and Android versions are in the works. We will announce the launch on this page.

Which languages?

It starts in Turkish and English; more languages are coming.

18+
Use it responsiblyProbs is not for under-18s. A probability is not a certainty; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.